Monday, November 23, 2009

The Brewing Storm

Asif Ali Zardari, the accidental president of Pakistan, who secured the top office in an aftermath to the assassination of his wife and leader of Pakistan People's Party, Benazir Bhutto, has been increasingly weakened as a consequence of a series of developments on the country's political landscape. These events do not appear to be a part of, or in anyway connected to a plot designed at his ouster. Yet every succeeding event that unfolds seems to the same effect: loosen the president's grip on power. The latest NRO debacle is viewed by many as a drop scene in the melodrama.

The Pakistani media after it was allowed freedom of expression by the former president, although he repented his decision later on and fought tooth and nail to revert it, has become exceedingly belligerent in its criticism of politicians and other significant figures whose flaws they can make fodder for their grinding. Mr. Zardari has been no exception. That he should complete one whole year of his term in the top office was a miracle indeed, joked a private TV channel.  He has been constantly rediculed and made fun of as a president to the extent that at one point he even proposed a law stipulating that everyone who uses the media to undermine the president would be treated as a criminal liable to be punished. However, this could simply not prevent him from further becoming the butt of even more jokes.

Of all the flaws pointed out by his opponents, there is one taint which marks his character rather excessively: corruption. The list of the charges of corruption and corruption cases pending against our president is perhaps beyond the scope of this discussion. However, suffice to say that he managed to win the title of Mr. Ten Percent, awarded to him for his alleged exaction of kickbacks in illegal deals which he permitted during the time when his wife was a prime minister. The French submarine case is another single example among scores others.  All these charges are obviously going to haunt the president for his life. Unless he goes to the courts and clears himself, his rivals would always remain after his skin and would never give him peace of mind. The pressure all this would build up will make him succumb to it, sooner or later.

Pakistan's most powerful institution, its military, is also not happy with the man. Strain in the relations between the presidency and the army were present from the start of his tenure but the almost opposite stance assumed by the two on KLB Bill really widened the gap. The military now started to view the president as too dovish and subservient. So much so that his docility may actually go against the national interest. Ashfaq Kiyani, the army chief, has been trying his best to steer clear of politics so far. Yet he would be left with no choice left, as matter stand, but to take on the president which to say to seek his ouster.

The United States, which had a role in striking a deal between Musharraf. and Benazir  also does not seem to be able to come to the rescue of Mr. Zardari. At the time when Gen. Musharraf, a leader who the US had propped up all along was unable to maintain his grip on power, and the superpower, was helpless too for the mess that the general had created for himself was humongous. America could not choose to throw its lot with the People's Party. However, the constant threats to the survival of Mr. Zardari as a president make him too vulnerable to be helped out.

Crevices appeared in the unified structure of the People party as Zardari reshuffled its dynamics. Many people who were once the darling of Ms. Bhutto seemed to have been completely ingored by the new chairman (yes co-chairman). The worst crack would be the one between the prime minister and the president which many even do not believe if it exists at all, as none of the two has hinted toward any mis-understanding. Yet, as things stand, a rift between the two is nothing but imminent, if it has not already happened.

How long will the president stay in his office beyond this point is the question cudgling many man's brain today. Is he going to be shown the door soon? A yet more interesting question is what the fate of the People party would be in an eventuality of that kind. Only time will tell.

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